Welcome to the September edition of the IEEFA Australia newsletter, your source for independent financial analysis on energy markets, regulation and the clean energy transition.
Our latest analysis finds:
New data tool reveals renewables rollout bottlenecks
Amandine Denis-Ryan CEO, Australia Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis
Latest Research
New Australian Renewable Energy Scorecard offers snapshot of renewables rollout
Johanna Bowyer, Tristan Edis
IEEFA has launched its Australian Renewable Energy Scorecard, an interactive, visual tool, that provides a quarterly overview of the progress of renewable energy projects across Australia. The Scorecard shows there are sufficient renewable energy and battery storage projects in development to meet Australia’s 2030 target, but too few have reached the construction phase. Moving more projects into construction could unlock employment totalling around 127,000 job-years, and around $44 billion in investment. Explore the Scorecard | View the Webinar
China’s resales of Australian LNG strengthens case for prioritising domestic users
Amandine Denis-Ryan, Josh Runciman
Chinese companies are estimated to have made at least AUD1.6 billion in arbitrage profits since 2021 on resales of Australian LNG, with 2026 on track to significantly exceed previous years. With Australia’s two largest LNG buyers – Japan and China – both reselling large volumes of Australian gas, often at significant profit, there is a strong case for prioritising domestic users when it comes to utilising eastern Australia’s cheapest source of gas.Read the insight | Read the full report on Chinese LNG resales
Growing the benefits of solar sharer tariffs
Jay Gordon
Increasing policy support for electrification would enable more households to benefit from solar sharer tariffs, which reward flexible use of electric appliances including hot water systems and air conditioners. For households with electric vehicles, solar sharer tariffs could offer annual savings of between $734 and $2,257. These tariffs also unlock opportunities for batteries in settings where rooftop solar is challenging, such as plug-in batteries for apartments.Read more
Not so hard to abate
Amandine Denis-Ryan, James Bowen
Many opportunities to reduce industrial emissions while cutting costs remain untapped, including through energy efficiency, low-grade heat and underground mine electrification, renewables in remote sites, clinker substitution in cement, and capturing fugitive methane. Such measures could deliver benefits beyond cost savings, enhancing productivity, working conditions and energy security. Australia lags other industrialised countries on uptake due to a range of barriers and inadequate incentives. Reforming the Safeguard Mechanism to constrain the use of carbon offsets and introducing complementary policies could put Australia back on track. Read more
Electrification saves Victorians $185m in three years
Jay Gordon
Residential electrification in Victoria has reduced household energy bills by $185 million since 2023. It has also cut Victoria’s annual gas demand by an estimated 5.6PJ/year since 2023 – equivalent to 10.5% of demand from large commercial and industrial users. Continued electrification uptake could increase household savings to $6.6 billion by 2040, while saving 40PJ/year in gas demand. New regulations from 2027 will likely accelerate residential electrification. This is important because slowing residential electrification could increase energy security risks for large gas users. Read more
Eastern Australia gas demand continues to fall
Josh Runciman
Eastern Australia’s gas consumption continues to fall along with domestic gas supply, extending a longer-term trend of demand reduction. Gas use for exports remains relatively stable, meaning exporters are accounting for a larger share of domestic gas production. Falling gas consumption reflects a range of factors, including government policy, the price impacts from the start of LNG exports and the redirection of domestic gas to export markets. Read more
Why NSW should not cave in to HVO’s coalmine ultimatum
Jonathan Teubner
Hunter Valley Operations (HVO)’s calls for a 19-year mine extension to withstand coal price cycles ignore the fact the market is in structural decline, and the prospect of increasing emissions reduction costs. A 19-year extension is only an "option" to operate, as mines are closed or “mothballed” when they become uneconomic, leaving local communities facing material economic and social impacts in the absence of an exit plan. HVO argued it needs 3-5 years to consult on mine closure, but its owners developed a full exit plan for another mine in just two years. Read more
Santos, Woodside look overseas for oil as Australia’s reserves slide further
Kevin Morrison
Santos’s development of the Pikka oil field in Alaska marks a strategic shift for the company, highlighting the declining prospects for significant new oil production in Australia and the need for Australian oil and gas producers to seek resources abroad. Australia’s unconventional oil resources, particularly shale oil, remain economically unviable and environmentally challenging. Read more
IEEFA Global Research
From buyer to broker: China's emergence as a global LNG reseller
Christopher Doleman, Sam Reynolds
China is managing a mismatch between plateauing LNG demand and its rapidly growing LNG contract portfolio by reselling surplus cargoes abroad. IEEFA estimates China resold 17-19 million tonnes of LNG in 2025 alone, and that Chinese companies earned US$4.6 billion in profit from reselling LNG sourced from the US and Australia between 2021 and June 2026. Chinese resales of surplus volumes could exacerbate global LNG oversupply in the coming years. Read more