Australia's go-to source for insightful financial analysis and updates on the energy transition   ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­    ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­  
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Welcome to the August edition of the IEEFA Australia newsletter, your source for independent financial analysis on energy markets, regulation and the clean energy transition.

 

Our latest analysis finds:

  • LNG exports soak up domestic gas demand fall

  • Coal’s over-reliance on offsets skews carbon markets

  • Green iron needs mining boom-scale capital, strong price signal

  • Fall in inflation masks looming Iran crisis fuel fallout

  • DER is delivering across Australia and South Asia 

Amandine Denis-Ryan
CEO, Australia
Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis

Latest Research 

LNG exports soak up more of Australia’s gas as domestic demand falls

Josh Runciman 

The latest update of IEEFA’s Australian Gas and LNG Tracker reveals domestic gas consumption is falling as LNG exports rose. Global LNG exports also increased on the back of surging US supply, despite the impact of the Iran war. China’s LNG imports fell materially, driving a fall in Asian LNG imports year on year to the first half of 2026. Queensland net gas supply to other states was virtually zero in FY2025-26. Explore the Tracker

Australia's annual LNG exports and domestic gas supply

The coal-fired carbon credit market

Andrew Gorringe 

As the federal government begins its review of the Safeguard Mechanism, a key focus must be on the coal mining sector’s growing reliance on carbon credits to offset its emissions. Coal is the biggest user of offsets in the Safeguard Mechanism, and its over-reliance on carbon credits is distorting the market for other users. Moreover, carbon credits do little to address one of coal mining’s key problems: its methane emissions. Read more

Fossil fuel production offsets

Scale of investment needed for Australia’s green iron ambition

Lachlan Wright 

Green iron is capital-intensive. Replacing Australia’s metallurgical coal exports with green iron by 2040 would require annual investment of AUD170 billion, on par with the mining boom peak. Such a high level of investment requires coordination on infrastructure and a strong, sustained price signal beyond what is available today. Australia can leverage policy tools that were successful in renewables to fill the gap. Read more

Annual investment (AUD bn) for green iron exports vs current and historical

Why July’s inflation relief may be short-lived 

Amandine Denis-Ryan 

Annual inflation dropped by 0.3 percentage points in July, but higher transport fuel costs are likely to push it up again in August as the end of the fuel excise cuts flows through. While Australia’s oil use as a share of GDP has declined steadily, oil price increases mean wholesale oil costs as a share of GDP have stayed at 1970s levels. A low demand elasticity to oil prices, and a rapidly growing dependence on diesel, are other factors that increase Australia’s exposure to oil shocks. Read more 

Average monthly retail fuel prices in Australia's five largest cities

Role of distributed resources in energy transition: A multi-country perspective

Shafiqul Alam, Jay Gordon, Gaurav Upadhyay 

Despite the continued dominance of centralised electricity systems built around large power plants and transmission networks, distributed energy resources (DER) are demonstrating their ability to deliver clean, affordable energy. Case studies of Australia, India and Bangladesh highlight the growing role of DER, with rooftop solar emerging as the dominant source. All three countries also have room for improvement on key enablers. Read more

Electrifying ironmaking: The potential of direct electrolysis of iron ore

Soroush Basirat 

Direct electrolysis of iron ore could establish a niche role in smaller-scale green iron production by utilising lower-grade iron ores without extensive ore preparation, lower infrastructure needs and, particularly in low-temperature processes, by operating more effectively with intermittent renewable electricity. While the energy consumed in the electrochemical process rivals conventional ironmaking, the scale of clean electricity required presents a challenge for its widespread adoption. Read more

HVO coalmine application reveals state of inconsistencies 

Jonathan Teubner 

Hunter Valley Operations (HVO)’s proposal to extend two of its open-cut thermal coalmines in NSW would increase its emissions with no commitment for any onsite abatement. HVO’s application is inconsistent with five of the NSW’s Net Zero Commission findings, which were either accepted or noted by the state government. HVO also has no exit strategy for the mines, and an application that needs significant updates, giving the IPC many reasons to reject HVO’s application as it stands. Read more 

IEEFA Global Research 

Global MDB Investments in Petrochemicals Tracker

Swathi Seshadri 

IEEFA's new Global MDB Investments in Petrochemicals Tracker is an interactive database developed by IEEFA in collaboration with the International Accountability Project (IAP). It visualises petrochemical investments from 16 multilateral development banks (MDBs) across different sectors within the industry. The key elements of the database are MDB details, client names, investment amount and type, bank risk rating, project sub-sector and investment purpose. Read more

MDB investments in petrochemical projects

India’s looming iron ore challenge

Saumya Nautiyal, Simon Nicholas 

India’s iron ore challenge is shifting from securing sufficient supply to securing the right quality of ore needed for an expanding, lower-emissions steel industry. The type of ore India sources could influence steelmaking technology choices and long-term dependence on imported coking coal. With global suppliers increasingly producing premium direct reduction-grade feedstocks and green iron, India should evaluate future iron ore sourcing through the lens of technology, energy security and industrial competitiveness – not simply cost. Read more

Submissions

NSW Independent Planning Commission – HVO North and South Open Cut Coal Continuation Projects 
NSW Net Zero Commission – Decarbonisation Pathways for NSW 
Australian Energy Regulator – Draft 2026 Rate of Return Instrument 
Climate Change Authority – 2026 Annual Progress Advice 
Climate Change Authority – Accelerating action on fossil methane emissions  

IEEFA Australia in the news 

Alcoa’s AU$8.1 bn South32 Deal Could Make It Australia’s Second-Largest Energy Consumer, IEEFA Says 
Concerns remain as WA government puts Oakajee site on table for new oil refinery 
Businesses, farmers to save on solar installations under renewable energy scheme expansion 
Aussie green iron needs massive investment, says IEEFA 
Mystery surrounds ‘stranded’ diesel tanker anchored off Queensland amid soaring fuel prices 
Near Australia, energy companies eye untapped gas in the 'Saudi Arabia of the Pacific' 
HVO Coal Mine Extension: 26 Mtpa Plan Tests Australia’s Coal Future as Emissions and Carbon Costs Rise 
The Illawarra's clean energy pivot: promise, progress and the gap in between 
Trump pledged support for fossil fuels. Now his war in Iran is fast-tracking renewables 
Australia’s battery boom is reshaping the grid, but few are sharing the power 
 

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